TrendAviv What usually moves EUR/ILS the most?
The pair is often driven by ECB and Bank of Israel policy expectations, broad dollar conditions, inflation expectations and local risk sentiment in Israel.
FX pairs
[Horizon: T+1 Close]
SELL
EUR / ILS EURILS=X
Forecasting and modeling
Latest reference level
3.4844
Active-horizon target
3.4709
-0.39%
Raw interval (bands)
S1 3.4464
R1 3.5224
R1 3.5224
Volatility (σ)
7.9%
Assessment (Yesterday for Today): 3.4975
Model quality (out-of-sample)
83.5%
Out-of-sample sample: 200 sessions
Why this asset matters
EUR/ILS (Euro vs Israeli Shekel) reflects the interaction between euro-area monetary policy and local Israeli macro conditions. The TrendAviv quantitative model evaluates macro data, volatility patterns and cross-currency pressure to produce short-term forecasts and trading ranges.
What usually moves this asset
EUR/ILS is usually influenced by ECB policy expectations, Bank of Israel policy, broad US dollar conditions, imported inflation expectations, and local risk sentiment. When global FX volatility rises, EUR/ILS can move not only on euro-specific news but also through broader shekel repricing.
How to read this page
On EUR/ILS, a short-term active-horizon signal should be read as a near-session directional lean, not as a full macro call on the euro or the shekel. Wider ranges often matter as much as direction.
Methodology and dashboard reading (Model Card)
Model architecture:
Random Forest built on price-based returns, trend-distance, rolling volatility and selected macro market features (DXY, oil, VIX). The news layer is currently contextual and may be excluded from forecast updates.
Random Forest built on price-based returns, trend-distance, rolling volatility and selected macro market features (DXY, oil, VIX). The news layer is currently contextual and may be excluded from forecast updates.
Horizons (Targets):
T+1: Direct forecast for the currently displayed horizon close.
T+30: Direct horizon forecasts for each trading day up to T+30, displayed as a path.
1M-1Y: Structural scenario layer derived from spot, rates, volatility and macro drift, shown separately from the short-horizon ML block.
T+1: Direct forecast for the currently displayed horizon close.
T+30: Direct horizon forecasts for each trading day up to T+30, displayed as a path.
1M-1Y: Structural scenario layer derived from spot, rates, volatility and macro drift, shown separately from the short-horizon ML block.
Validation:
Walk-forward testing on expanding history without future leakage. Retraining is performed inside each evaluation step.
Walk-forward testing on expanding history without future leakage. Retraining is performed inside each evaluation step.
- Entry: At spot price (snapshot before model calculation). Exit: At active-horizon close.
- Divergence: If the technical trend is falling but the signal is BUY, the model has detected a local oversold condition and is trading a rebound (mean reversion).
- Execution risk: The signal is not investment advice and does not include sizing. The model does not account for broker spreads, slippage, or carry costs (swap/rollover for FX).
- News risk: At extreme risk sentiment (GDELT), raw bands are not calibrated for outliers. The probability of fat tails increases.
1. Current market regime (Technical & Macro View)
Heuristic regime gauges
1W
Neutral
1M
Decline
6M
Neutral
Heuristic regime display for page context, not a price-return backfill.
Heuristic regime indicators
Regime oscillator Displayed as a heuristic regime oscillator for page context. In the current version, this is not a full classical RSI calculation from the complete indicator pipeline.
45.7 (Neutral)
Trend-bias proxyBearish
Macro / carry biasBelow SMA 50/200
Volatility (σ)7.9%
Display heuristics for current regime reading. Not a full classical technical-indicator calculation.
Volatility (σ)7.9%
Macro factors (Percentile Score)
Values are normalized from 0 to 100
Sentiment (GDELT NLP)
Tension indexN/A
StatusData unavailable
Source: GDELT Project API
Coverage: ~400 media / 24h
Updated: 25.10.2026 02:30 UTC
News-tone classification, not a factual confirmation of the event.
Coverage: ~400 media / 24h
Updated: 25.10.2026 02:30 UTC
News-tone classification, not a factual confirmation of the event.
2. Deep quantitative analytics
Historical seasonality
This panel is temporarily hidden while historical monthly returns are being rebuilt from the same source-aligned series used by the model.
A real seasonality heatmap will return after monthly returns are recalculated from the same source-aligned history used by the model.
Forward tilt estimate (CIP + ML bias)
No-arbitrage forward estimate and ML premium (horizon τ = 1 month).
Drift estimate: 3.4798
Inputs: ECB deposit facility: 4.00% | BoI policy rate: 4.50% (as of 25.10.2026)
No-arbitrage CIP Forward: F = S × (1 + r_Quote × τ) / (1 + r_Base × τ)
Drift estimate: CIP forward + ML correction (historical bias)
Latest reference level: 3.4844No-arbitrage CIP Forward: F = S × (1 + r_Quote × τ) / (1 + r_Base × τ)
Drift estimate: CIP forward + ML correction (historical bias)
Drift estimate: 3.4798
UndervaluedOvervalued
Spot deviation from estimate: 0.13% (Threshold ±1.5%)
Model verdict: Fairly valued
3. ML model assessment (Predictive Analytics)
Historical validation: model forecast vs reality
Bands are nominal (raw). Current empirical out-of-sample coverage: 79.5%. The model is still being calibrated.
For historical validation, this chart uses the same source as the model input: Bank of Israel · representative exchange rate. This removes cross-source shift.
Return-space check: predicted vs realized active-horizon move
This view removes the false level-lag effect and shows the predicted change from the previous close.
ML model summary (tree ensemble)
Analyzing macroeconomic data, the ML model detects a mild bearish (downtrend) regime on the medium-term horizon. The news-sentiment layer is unavailable in this refresh and is excluded from the narrative interpretation. RSI (45.7) confirms the local structure.
Active-horizon signal: SELL
Return to target: -0.39%
Return to target: -0.39%
Attention (Risk calibration):
Raw interval. Empirical OOS coverage: 79.5%. Calibration is still required (fat tails).
Raw interval. Empirical OOS coverage: 79.5%. Calibration is still required (fat tails).
Directional model accuracy estimate 58.5%
Empirical coverage 79.5%
MAE edge Baseline (naive forecast) = tomorrow's price equals today's price. Edge = (MAE_naive - MAE_model) / MAE_naive.
MAE Model: 0.0140
MAE Naive: 0.0145+8.5% Edge
MAE Model: 0.0140
MAE Naive: 0.0145+8.5% Edge
Out-of-sample sample Based on 200 recent out-of-sample sessions shown on this page. Small samples can materially overstate or understate stability.200 sessions
4. Probabilities and trading signals
Close probability over a 30-trading-day horizon Mode: Normal (Calm)
Estimate of the probability that price closes above or below target levels exactly after 30 trading days (T+30 sessions).
Calculated via Gaussian CDF N(μ, σ). Does not account for skewness or fat tails during geopolitical FX shocks.
Close ABOVE level (Upside)
Level R1 (3.5224)6%
Level R2 (3.5747)1%
Close BELOW level (Downside)
Level S1 (3.4464)72%
Level S2 (3.3941)47%
Trading interpretation of the signal:
- Instrument: EURILS=X
- Entry: At current session close (04:30).
- Exit: At active-horizon close (26.10).
- Model: SELL (Expected return: -0.39%)
Signals are produced exclusively by the ML core and are not investment advice.
Attention: The daily forecast (left) is displayed as direct horizon estimates for each trading day up to T+30. The long-horizon block (right) is a structural scenario layer, so the trajectories can diverge.
Short-horizon ML expectations (daily)
| Date | ML target | Raw interval (bands) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26.10.2026 (Mon) | 3.4709 | [3.4475 - 3.4944] | SELL |
| 27.10.2026 (Tue) | 3.4648 | [3.4318 - 3.4982] | SELL |
| 28.10.2026 (Wed) | 3.4618 | [3.4214 - 3.5026] | SELL |
| 29.10.2026 (Thu) | 3.4589 | [3.4124 - 3.5060] | SELL |
| 30.10.2026 (Fri) | 3.4598 | [3.4078 - 3.5125] | SELL |
| 02.11.2026 (Mon) | 3.4473 | [3.3906 - 3.5049] | SELL |
| 03.11.2026 (Tue) | 3.4351 | [3.3741 - 3.4971] | SELL |
| 04.11.2026 (Wed) | 3.4374 | [3.3723 - 3.5038] | SELL |
| 05.11.2026 (Thu) | 3.4266 | [3.3577 - 3.4968] | SELL |
| 06.11.2026 (Fri) | 3.4208 | [3.3484 - 3.4948] | SELL |
| 09.11.2026 (Mon) | 3.4179 | [3.3420 - 3.4954] | SELL |
| 10.11.2026 (Tue) | 3.4048 | [3.3260 - 3.4856] | SELL |
| 11.11.2026 (Wed) | 3.4177 | [3.3354 - 3.5021] | SELL |
| 12.11.2026 (Thu) | 3.4237 | [3.3381 - 3.5114] | SELL |
| 13.11.2026 (Fri) | 3.4149 | [3.3266 - 3.5056] | SELL |
| 16.11.2026 (Mon) | 3.4166 | [3.3254 - 3.5104] | SELL |
| 17.11.2026 (Tue) | 3.4233 | [3.3291 - 3.5201] | SELL |
| 18.11.2026 (Wed) | 3.4352 | [3.3380 - 3.5353] | SELL |
| 19.11.2026 (Thu) | 3.4302 | [3.3305 - 3.5328] | SELL |
| 20.11.2026 (Fri) | 3.4352 | [3.3328 - 3.5407] | SELL |
| 23.11.2026 (Mon) | 3.4428 | [3.3377 - 3.5512] | SELL |
| 24.11.2026 (Tue) | 3.4334 | [3.3262 - 3.5441] | SELL |
| 25.11.2026 (Wed) | 3.4340 | [3.3243 - 3.5472] | SELL |
| 26.11.2026 (Thu) | 3.4182 | [3.3067 - 3.5333] | SELL |
| 27.11.2026 (Fri) | 3.4255 | [3.3116 - 3.5434] | SELL |
| 30.11.2026 (Mon) | 3.4268 | [3.3106 - 3.5471] | SELL |
| 01.12.2026 (Tue) | 3.4243 | [3.3061 - 3.5469] | SELL |
| 02.12.2026 (Wed) | 3.4121 | [3.2921 - 3.5365] | SELL |
| 03.12.2026 (Thu) | 3.3981 | [3.2765 - 3.5242] | SELL |
Long-horizon structural expectations
| Horizon end | ML target | Delta | Raw interval (bands) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25.01.2027 (1 quarter) | 3.3432 | -4.05% | [3.1709 - 3.5212] | SELL |
| 25.04.2027 (6 months) | 3.2588 | -6.47% | [2.9959 - 3.5358] | SELL |
| 25.10.2027 (1 year) | 3.0920 | -11.26% | [2.7242 - 3.4896] | SELL |
Long horizons are shown as a structural scenario layer built from spot, rates, volatility and macro drift. Read them separately from the short-horizon ML forecast.
5. Research sandbox (Illustrative sensitivity)
Stress-test calculator (What-If Analysis)
Illustrates linear sensitivity to shocks (based on heuristic weights). Under stress, the risk corridor widens (volatility).
Short-horizon ML forecast (up to 30 trading days)
Long-horizon structural scenario (up to 1 year)
6. Interactive chart (TradingView)
Attention: the base model calculation uses Bank of Israel · representative exchange rate. The chart below shows the TradingView feed (FX_IDC:EURILS), so small quote differences are possible.
Related market pages
FAQ
How should I read the active-horizon EUR/ILS signal?
As a short-horizon directional lean into the currently displayed horizon close, not as a long-term macro forecast for the pair.
Why can the short-term signal disagree with the medium-term regime?
Because the short-term layer can capture local rebounds or pullbacks while the medium-term regime reflects the broader backdrop.
Why do model ranges widen during stress?
Because FX reacts quickly to macro surprises, policy repricing and geopolitical shocks, which can expand realized volatility.