Commodities

[Horizon: T+1 Close]

SELL

GOLD (Gold Futures) GOLD

Forecasting and modeling

Model input: TASE / Yahoo Finance
Chart feed: TradingView / exchange feed
Rates: N/A | Macro sentiment: GDELT Project

Latest reference level 5,190.40

Active-horizon target 5,169.03 -0.41%

Raw interval (bands) S1 4,976.34
R1 5,404.46

Volatility (σ) 29.8% Assessment (Yesterday for Today): 5,179.60

Model quality (out-of-sample) 83.5% Out-of-sample sample: 200 sessions

Why this asset matters

GOLD (Gold Futures) is tracked here as a global macro and risk-sensitive instrument. The page is meant to help readers read the public signal together with volatility and risk context rather than as a simple one-line view on price direction.

What usually moves this asset

GOLD (Gold Futures) is usually influenced by global macro conditions, US dollar moves, real yields, geopolitical stress and broader risk sentiment.

How to read this page

For commodity pages, pay close attention to volatility and macro backdrop. Direction alone can be an incomplete read of the setup.

Methodology and dashboard reading (Model Card)

Model architecture:
Tree-ensemble architecture (Random Forest / gradient-boosted logic) built on price structure, volatility regime, macro-relative features, cross-asset context and sentiment inputs. For non-FX assets, the model is not centered on rate differentials alone.

Horizons (Targets):
T+1: Direct forecast for the currently displayed horizon close.
T+30: Direct horizon forecasts for each trading day up to T+30, displayed as a path.
1M-1Y: asset_model_targets_1m_1y_nonfx

Validation:
Walk-forward testing on expanding history without future leakage. Retraining is performed inside each evaluation step.

Trading definition of the signal:

Entry: At spot price (snapshot before model calculation). Exit: At active-horizon close.
Divergence: If the technical trend is falling but the signal is BUY, the model has detected a local oversold condition and is trading a rebound (mean reversion).
Execution risk: The signal is not investment advice and does not include sizing. The model does not account for broker spreads, slippage, or carry costs (swap/rollover for FX).
News risk: At extreme risk sentiment (GDELT), raw bands are not calibrated for outliers. The probability of fat tails increases.

1. Current market regime (Technical & Macro View)

Heuristic regime gauges

Strong decline

Neutral

Heuristic regime display for page context, not a price-return backfill.

Heuristic regime indicators

10.0 (Oversold)

Trend-bias proxyBearish

Macro / carry biasBelow SMA 50/200

Volatility (σ)29.8%

Display heuristics for current regime reading. Not a full classical technical-indicator calculation.

Volatility (σ)29.8%

Macro factors (Percentile Score)

Values are normalized from 0 to 100

Sentiment (GDELT NLP)

Tension indexN/A

StatusData unavailable

Source: GDELT Project API
Coverage: ~400 media / 24h
Updated: 25.10.2026 02:30 UTC
News-tone classification, not a factual confirmation of the event.

2. Deep quantitative analytics

Historical seasonality

This panel is temporarily hidden while historical monthly returns are being rebuilt from the same source-aligned series used by the model.

A real seasonality heatmap will return after monthly returns are recalculated from the same source-aligned history used by the model.

Medium-term continuation estimate

For indices, equities, bonds and commodities, the 1M-1Y block is shown as a continuation of the 30-trading-day ML anchor, not as an FX-style CIP fair-value model.

Inputs: 30-trading-day ML anchor + medium-term continuation profile
30D anchor: 4,586.15
Extension profile: Anchor continuation with volatility widening

Current level: 5,190.40
Medium-term scenario: 4,586.15

Mean-revertContinue

Gap versus 30D anchor: 0.00%

Model verdict: Balanced continuation

3. ML model assessment (Predictive Analytics)

Historical validation: model forecast vs reality

Bands are nominal (raw). Current empirical out-of-sample coverage: 88.5%. The model is still being calibrated.

For historical validation, this chart uses the same source as the model input: TASE / Yahoo Finance. This removes cross-source shift.

Return-space check: predicted vs realized active-horizon move

This view removes the false level-lag effect and shows the predicted change from the previous close.

ML model summary (tree ensemble)

Analyzing macroeconomic data, the ML model detects a confident bearish (downtrend) regime on the medium-term horizon. The news-sentiment layer is unavailable in this refresh and is excluded from the narrative interpretation. RSI (10.0) confirms the local structure.

Active-horizon signal: SELL
Return to target: -0.41%

Attention (Risk calibration):
Raw interval. Empirical OOS coverage: 88.5%. Calibration is still required (fat tails).

Directional model accuracy estimate 52.5%

Empirical coverage 88.5%

4. Probabilities and trading signals

Close probability over a 30-trading-day horizon Mode: Normal (Calm)

Estimate of the probability that price closes above or below target levels exactly after 30 trading days (T+30 sessions). Calculated via Gaussian CDF N(μ, σ). Does not account for skewness or fat tails during geopolitical FX shocks.

Close ABOVE level (Upside)

Level R1 (5,404.46)3%

Level R2 (5,482.31)2%

Close BELOW level (Downside)

Level S1 (4,976.34)81%

Level S2 (4,898.49)76%

Trading interpretation of the signal:

Instrument: GOLD
Entry: At current session close (04:30).
Exit: At active-horizon close (26.10).
Model: SELL (Expected return: -0.41%)

Signals are produced exclusively by the ML core and are not investment advice.

Attention: The daily forecast (left) is displayed as direct horizon estimates for each trading day up to T+30. The long-horizon block (right) is a structural scenario layer, so the trajectories can diverge.

Short-horizon ML expectations (daily)

Date	ML target	Raw interval (bands)	Signal
26.10.2026 (Mon)	5,169.03	[5,013.50 - 5,329.39]	SELL
27.10.2026 (Tue)	5,147.75	[4,930.07 - 5,375.04]	SELL
28.10.2026 (Wed)	5,126.55	[4,862.33 - 5,405.14]	SELL
29.10.2026 (Thu)	5,105.45	[4,802.83 - 5,427.13]	SELL
30.10.2026 (Fri)	5,084.43	[4,748.68 - 5,443.91]	SELL
02.11.2026 (Mon)	5,063.49	[4,698.40 - 5,456.96]	SELL
03.11.2026 (Tue)	5,042.65	[4,651.08 - 5,467.18]	SELL
04.11.2026 (Wed)	5,021.88	[4,606.15 - 5,475.14]	SELL
05.11.2026 (Thu)	5,001.21	[4,563.21 - 5,481.25]	SELL
06.11.2026 (Fri)	4,980.62	[4,521.94 - 5,485.82]	SELL
09.11.2026 (Mon)	4,960.11	[4,482.14 - 5,489.05]	SELL
10.11.2026 (Tue)	4,939.69	[4,443.62 - 5,491.14]	SELL
11.11.2026 (Wed)	4,919.35	[4,406.24 - 5,492.22]	SELL
12.11.2026 (Thu)	4,899.10	[4,369.89 - 5,492.39]	SELL
13.11.2026 (Fri)	4,878.93	[4,334.47 - 5,491.77]	SELL
16.11.2026 (Mon)	4,858.84	[4,299.91 - 5,490.42]	SELL
17.11.2026 (Tue)	4,838.84	[4,266.13 - 5,488.42]	SELL
18.11.2026 (Wed)	4,818.91	[4,233.08 - 5,485.82]	SELL
19.11.2026 (Thu)	4,799.07	[4,200.70 - 5,482.68]	SELL
20.11.2026 (Fri)	4,779.31	[4,168.96 - 5,479.03]	SELL
23.11.2026 (Mon)	4,759.64	[4,137.81 - 5,474.91]	SELL
24.11.2026 (Tue)	4,740.04	[4,107.22 - 5,470.36]	SELL
25.11.2026 (Wed)	4,720.53	[4,077.16 - 5,465.41]	SELL
26.11.2026 (Thu)	4,701.09	[4,047.60 - 5,460.09]	SELL
27.11.2026 (Fri)	4,681.73	[4,018.51 - 5,454.42]	SELL
30.11.2026 (Mon)	4,662.46	[3,989.88 - 5,448.42]	SELL
01.12.2026 (Tue)	4,643.26	[3,961.68 - 5,442.11]	SELL
02.12.2026 (Wed)	4,624.15	[3,933.89 - 5,435.52]	SELL
03.12.2026 (Thu)	4,605.11	[3,906.50 - 5,428.65]	SELL

Long-horizon structural expectations

Horizon end	ML target	Delta	Raw interval (bands)	Signal
25.01.2027 (1 quarter)	4,474.45	-13.79%	[3,505.88 - 5,627.95]	SELL
25.04.2027 (6 months)	4,311.98	-16.92%	[2,912.45 - 6,155.54]	SELL
25.10.2027 (1 year)	3,996.30	-23.01%	[2,193.47 - 6,711.74]	SELL

Long horizons are shown as a structural scenario layer built from spot, rates, volatility and macro drift. Read them separately from the short-horizon ML forecast.

5. Research sandbox (Illustrative sensitivity)

Stress-test calculator (What-If Analysis)

Illustrates linear sensitivity to shocks (based on heuristic weights). Under stress, the risk corridor widens (volatility).

Geopolitical shock (GDELT): 0

Crisis (-1)Peace (+1)

US Dollar Index shock (DXY): 0%

DXY down (-10%)DXY up (+10%)

Short-horizon ML forecast (up to 30 trading days)

Long-horizon structural scenario (up to 1 year)

6. Interactive chart (TradingView)

Attention: the base model calculation uses TASE / Yahoo Finance. The chart below shows the TradingView feed (OANDA:XAUUSD), so small quote differences are possible.

Related market pages

FAQ

What usually moves this commodity?

Commodity prices are often influenced by dollar moves, real yields, geopolitical stress and broad macro conditions.

How should I read an active-horizon signal here?

As a short-horizon lean that should be interpreted together with volatility and macro context.

Why can ranges expand sharply?

Because commodities can react quickly to macro surprises, geopolitical events and shifts in risk sentiment.

Why are validation metrics important?

Because commodities can change regime quickly, so model quality context helps frame uncertainty.